Belt and Road Initiative with it's Global Implications

Overview

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) also known as One Belt ,One Road (OBOR) is a trans-continental project that connects China with Asia, Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks under six different corridors. An investment of 6-7 Trillion USD morphed global economy.

China adopted "Go west Policy" because eastern China is thickly populated therefore she thought to establish economic zones in western China to boost economy ,globalization ,GDP and Purchasing Power Parity.

The name BRI was first coined by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013.It was first a strategy then termed as initiative.This program is now open to all countries as well as international and regional organizations. It is bifurcated into;

v  Silk Road Economic Belt

v  Maritime Silk Road

Silk Road Economic Belt

It is the land route that links China with South Asia,South East Asia,Central Asia, Russia and Europe.

Maritime Silk Road

The sea route connecting coastal regions of China with South East Asia,South Asia ,South Pacific ,Middle East ,Eastern Africa and all way to Europe

Objectives of BRI

v  Policy Coordination
v  Globalization
v  Financial Integration
v  Unimpeded Trade

Projects of BRI

v  Ports
v  Roads
v  Airports
v  Power Plants
v  Railways

Economic Corridors Under BRI

v  China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
v  China-Mongolia-Russia Corridor
v  Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor
v  China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor
v  New Eurasia Land Bridge 

What China gets from BRI?

China established multilateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).It raised 40 Billion USD.It further established banks in BRI countries to make easy transactions in it's local currency.

BRI provided greater security of energy resources through access to Russian and Iranian oil and gas by linking web of pipelines from Russia and Central Asia.

82% of China's oil imports transit through the Malacca Strait-choking point located between Indian and Pacific Ocean- and South China Sea.China is already confrontating with USA in South China Sea.BRI provided a way to address this issue.The distance of 16000 km that China has to cover through Malacca Strait is reduced to 5000 km via Pakistan.Perishable commodity (vegetables etc) can now be easily exported.

Gawadar-Xinjiang pipeline enables China to bypass the Malacca Strait altogether.Middle Eastern shipping tankers could dock in Gawadar where oil would be extracted and transported through a series of pipelines that consequently will save time and capital.

Chinese Vision Behind BRI

BRI is the response to Obama's "Pivot to Asia Strategy and expansion" which was announced in 2011.

China initiated this project to gain geopolitical and economic interests,to revamp her image among neighbors and rejuvenate them economically. China adopted gravity model where big economy engulfs smaller.

Her policy is to secure long term energy supplies from Central Asia and Middle East, economic development of western Province and to counter separatist movements in Xinjiang,China.

BRI Pakistan's new Cargo cult

Though BRI is going to change strategic dynamics of entire Indo-Pacific region yet overinflated expectations of Pakistan are unlikely to be met.China is reliable and trustworthy friend antithetical to USA. Gawader over a period of time has been touted as new Dubai by mundane and few politicians on social and electronic media. CPEC under BRI at times resembles as a cargo cult: a belief that Chinese cash will magically descend from heavens and flip Pakistan's fate 180 degrees without Pakistan's efforts to adopt robust and effective economic policies.

Speculations in the air that there are plans to build a Chinese naval base in Gawadar. In 2011 Pakistan's Defense Minister Ahmed Mukhtar announced China would build a naval base in Gawadar which Beijing promptly denied. Pakistan has proposed China to build a new naval and air base at village Jiwani ,60 km west of Gawadar a recent Washington Times report asserted.

CPEC under BRI Projects

PM Imran Khan inaugurated several infrastructure development projects including an airport of 12000 meter runway that will be completed in three years with Chinese grant of 250 million USD .The runway will be capable of handling aircraft A-380.

KSA announced to build 10 billion USD oil refinery and petrochemical complex in Gawader. Nine industrial zones will soon be constructed in Pakistan.Moreover optical fiber to be laid from Khunjarab to Gawadar.China is going to invest in Agriculture and energy sector under CPEC.

10000 MW will be added to national grid.900 MW solar plant is under construction in Bahawalpur.Karot Hydropower Plant will be completed by 2021.Port Qasim coal fired power plant ,Thar coal Project,Neelum Jehlum Project ,Daso Project and Nuclear Projects at Chasma are the popular programs of CPEC under BRI.

Global Impacts of BRI

It is anticipated that 124 countries and 29 international organizations have signed BRI corporation documents with China. BRI's vision has been included in the documents of major international institutions like UN, Asia-Pacific Economic Corporation, SCO and G20.

Trade volume between China and countries in BRI has excelled 6 Trillion USD. Job opportunities soared to 300,000.Kazakhstan has gained access to Pacific Ocean. Germany has seen surge in China-Europe Railway express service creating 5000 plus jobs.

Is BRI a debt trap?

Bhattarai ;a renowned  security and strategy scholar in his book "My Republica" said, China is emerging as Global Power ,evidently a threat to western countries. He further asserted Mahatir of Malaysia scrapped east-coast rail of 20 billion USD under BRI then later apologized. 

He wrote about Srilankan Hambantota Port has been given to China on lease for 99 years to pay it's debts.He is aghast and afraid on Nepal's decision to blindly accept Chinese loans for financing the projects under BRI.

Anticipated Hurdles for BRI

US Opposition:

USA claimed BRI a debt-trap diplomacy therefore Mr Trump introduced BUILD ACT with USAID for investment of 160 Billion USD for international development to dilute BRI.USA with India along criticize CPEC a flagship project of BRI as CPEC goes through disputed territory Gilgit-Baltistan.

India's Concerns and Terrorism:

India invested 3 billion USD in Afghanistan to improve the infrastructure to entice Kabul. 

Moreover India is concerned about CPEC because of Gilgit-Baltistan -the gateway to CPEC- as it considers Gilgit-Baltistan as Pakistan occupied Kashmir that is wrong because people of Gilgit-Baltistan are patriot Pakistanis.

It further fuels saparatists in Balochistan to sabotage CPEC.Balochistan Liberation Allaince (BLA) attacked a bus of chinese engineers in August,2018 at Balochistan.Chinese consulate in Karachi was assaulted in November,2019 by Afghanis supported by RAW.Gawader PC hotel was also attacked to disturpt CPEC.

Russia and BRI:

Russia initially anticipated that Eurasian Economic Union could be affected due to BRI but later felt otherwise and joined hands with China in BRI against west.

Japan and BRI:

Japan raised 110 Billion USD on Asia-Africa Growth Corridor that connects India-Myanmar-East Africa to compete china.

Conclusion

China preferred economy of scale after 1980 so it started expansion in search of cheap labor and covered almost whole world over a period of time by giving low interest loans to create goodwill among neighbors bolstering globalization.BRI is a win-win project that offers streamedlined border crossings ,paving a way to big Market.