Fifth Generation and Hybrid Warfare

Introduction:

Fifth Generation Warfare (5GW) is the covert and deliberate manipulation  of actors ,networks, institutions, states or any generation warfare forces to achieve goals across a combination of socio-economic  and political domains while attempting to avoid or minimize the retaliatory offensive and defensive actions and reactions of generation warfare powered actors ,networks, institutions and states.

Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that employs a blend of kinetic operations, conventional war ,non conventional subversive efforts to destabilize an adversary.

Theory of 5 GW:

Donald J Reed states that ,"The development of war has been evolutionary where as it's impact on conventional notions of war is revolutionary and is increasing at an exponential rate"

Example:

Anthrax and Ricin powder attack on Capitol Hill during 2001 may be considered an early example of 5 GW.

Both sets of attacks require specialized knowledge including attacks upon federal government offices and facilities ,succeeded in disrupting government processes and created widespread fear in public. It is an evolved form of insurgency.  

Determinants of War Evolution:

Thinkers and war strategists defines four elements for evolution of war.

              1.     New Domains of Conflict

              2.     Changing nature of adversaries

              3.     Changing nature of objectives

              4.     Changing nature of force

1.New Domains of Conflict

              a.       Physical Domain: It covers traditional land ,air and sea.

              b.       Information Domain: Information is created, manipulated and shared e,g Cyber domain

              c.       Cognitive Domain: It includes intent, doctrine, tactics and procedures.

              d.        Social Domain: It constitutes culture ,religion, values, beliefs, attitudes and political decisions associated with "will of the people" are made.

 2.Changing Nature of Adversaries

• Surface armies and navy
• Combined arm military
• Networks
• Supra combinations

3.Changing Nature of Objectives

•         Direct destruction of enemy (annihilation)
•         Indirect destruction with fire power (attrition of resources)
•         Destruction of Military Command and Logistics
•         Destruction of enemy's political and public will

4.Changing Nature of Force

              a.        1GW:Line and Column Warfare Kinetic force. Battles fought in lines and columns formation.

              b.       2GW:Trench warfare Kinetic force. Machine gun and indirect fire are the developments of this war.

              c.        3GW:Maneuevr warfare kinetic force. Stealth ,speed and surprise tactics are used to bypass enemy.

              d.       4GW:Insurgent warfare Political force. Major participant is not a state but a violent non-state actor.

              e.       5GW:Kinetic and Non Kinetic force. Propaganda and information warfare.

Hybrid Warfare

Salient Features of Hybrid Warfare

              a.      Characteristics of Adversaries

              b.      Methods and tactics of Adversaries

              c.       Flexibility and Adaptability

              d.       Use of Advanced weapons and Technology

              e.       Battlefield  

a. Characteristics of Adversaries

A hybrid adversary can be a state or non-state actor. Take instance of Israel-Hezbullah and Syrian Civil War ,the main adversaries are the non-state entities within the state system. Non-state actors are proxies for countries or states but have independent agendas. Russian involvement in Ukraine can be described as a traditional state actor waging a hybrid war.

b. Methods and Tactics of Adversaries

Methods and Tactics include conventional capabilities ,terrorist attacks as done by TTP and ISIS.

c. Flexibility and Adaptability

A hybrid adversary is flexible and adapts quickly. ISIS response to US aerial bombing ,ISIS diluted themselves in civilians so that civilian collateral damage could be used as a shield and recruiting tool.

d. Use of Advanced Weapons and Technology

One can take example of Hezbullah equipped with high tech weaponry, guided missiles ,aerial drones to gather intelligence and using thermal night vision equipment .

e. Battlefield

Hybrid warfare can be carried out in three fields

•          Conventional battlefield
•          Indigenous population of conflict zone
•          International Community

Phases of Hybrid Warfare

       Phase-1:Public morale is targeted by adversary through  media or social media.

       Phase-2:Target state is subjected to proxy warfare. Proxy war of Iran/KSA in Middle east.

       Phase-3:It includes physical coercion and threat from adversary.

       Phase-4:It comprises of both conventional and non conventional war.

Difference between 5GW and Hybrid Warfare

5GW

It is primarily evolved from previous four generations of warfare with focus on information and cyber threats. This warfare can be waged by states/ non-state actors. It is a blend of kinetic and non-kinetic warfare waged in social and cognitive domain. The proponents of 5GW avoid conventional military confrontation and aims at diverse objectives to include: small gains through hacking, medium gains through terrorist incidents and may aim at strategic gains like regime change.

 Hybrid Warfare

 Hybrid warfare is a mixture of first three generations of warfare with either fourth or fifth generation warfare including  kinetic operations along with non-kinetic operations. It can only be waged by a state capable of launching conventional war onto the adversary. Oppressor state may employ non-state actors as tools to fulfill the objective.  It is predominantly kinetic form of warfare in physical and conventional/ sub conventional domain. Hybrid warfare seeks conventional military confrontation as the last decisive option. It mainly aims at regime change/ overpowering target state

Elements of Hybrid Warfare

•          Narrative checks                               
•          Cyber Attacks (viruses ,malware)
•          Anonymous Militias
•          Clandestine Supplies
•          Diplomatic Support
•          Social/electronic media
•          Artificial Intelligence
•          NGOs

Objectives of Hybrid Warfare

•          Initially erode morale
•          Diplomatically isolate a country
•          Soften up before full scale invasion
•          Disrupt Communication

 Hybrid Warfare across the World

Pakistan was targeted by hybrid warfare in 1971.Mukti Bahini ,Mujeeb ur Rehman and narrative of refugees served the role of hybrid warfare agents. Unrest of Iraq fueled by US may be considered Hybrid warfare because US did not invade Iraq directly but imposed sanctions in 2004.

Adversaries enjoy powers in IT ,Cyber domain, media projection ,narrative construction ,fake news ,subversion ,sabotage and false flag operations.

Hybrid Campaigns launched against Pakistan

Pakistan Nuclear and Missile Program is of immense concern of world big powers. Therefore a deliberate and coercive diplomacy is adopted by World Powers to sabotage the overstated nuclear proliferation. Another propaganda where Wall Street Journal reported that Pakistan can be managed to barter it's Nuclear Program for funds.

The legit struggle of Kashmiri Freedom fighters is maligned under the garb of terrorism to divest innocent Kashmiries of their fundamental rights.

Pakistan at times has been used as face saving by US to tarnish Pakistan's image in the global arena and world politics.US and India's nexus to sabotage CPEC under Belt and Road Initiative of China is yet another example.

Propaganda ,fake news are used as tools against Pakistan Army and Intelligence forces by Indian Media and some of it's proxies across the globe. Most of the time Iranian soil is used to destabilize Pakistan .e.g Case study of Kalbushan Yadav. He used to operative his covert activities from Iran.

Hybrid warfare in Gilgit-Baltistan and Balochistan to instigate the public  against the state has seen climax over the period of time.

Target Spheres of Hybrid Warfare in Pakistan

Adversaries find effective to hit religion, sect, culture, ethnicity and social structure of masses. Baluchistan Liberation Alliance and other nationalist organizations in Pakistan embody the covert operation of foreign powers. The non state actors have entrenched in our society to transform our mindset. At times culture is maligned public is associated to.

Capital is invested on Political leadership more often to get the desired effect and situation and to soften up the state from inside out. Sectarian divide is also focused to create chaos in the target state. Sipah e Muhammad ,Alzainabiyoun are the popular names of Shia organizations inspired by Iranian Revolution of 1979 remained successful to create upheavals in society. Similarly ASWJ ,LEJ are Sunni militant outfit to disrupt peace throughout the country. These outfits are backed by foreign elements under the garb of hybrid warfare.

State cannot respond to some of the clandestine and overt activities due to non-crossing of threshold but other operations have been countered through Zarb-e-Azb in July,2014 ,Radd-ul-Fasad in 2017 and National Action Plan.C

Critical Analysis

New generation intentionally or unintentionally provided soothing environment to foreign elements. Therefore adequate counseling and conceptualization is required to educate it. The youth should not be harassed but provided with sense of security. Funding of individuals and organizations from overseas should be through proper legal procedures and channels.

Security agencies must be equipped with modern equipment for surveillance to neutralize foreign agencies ,proxies and non-state actors. Command and Control Systems must be upgraded, Nuclear Program security must be ensured because US and Israel managed to hack Iran's Nuclear program through virus "Stuxnet" that ruined 1/5th of nuclear centrifuges.

Restructuring of Pakistan Television to compete western media is imperative. It should have international operations based in Europe, America with reporters, analysts and newscasters.

These spheres Pakistan needs to work on to kill adversaries at all fronts and levels.