Sino-Indian War

Historic Perspective:

The Sino-Indian War between the two South Asian powers China and India started in 1962.The disputed Himalaya Ladakh,Tibet and Thagla resorted to be the bone of contention that led to war. Mcmahon line was the border line of British India and China but China did not identify this line as legitimate border line and it considered these areas as part of it's own territory. Therefore it deployed troops on border, evidently it was a border violation so India took the issue to international community in response.

 Meanwhile a revolt took place in Tibet in defiance of Chinese occupation and People's Liberation Army (PLA) in 1959. The most powerful spiritual leader of Tibet Dalai Lama was evacuated to India. The rebellion eventually intensified the dispute between China and India.

India retaliated to China’s hostility on border and adopted a Forward policy under the premiership of Jawaher Lal Nehru and moved its heavy troops on border areas and India launched an army to attack China on Ladakh and Thagla. Although India attacked China but its troops were ill-trained for mountainous warfare.

China thwarted with huge and a well-disciplined army, fully acquainted with weapons and climatic know-how. China assaulted Indian troops in Ladakh. Chinese crushed the Indian army in two attempts. Though the war was brief ,yet a decisive encounter between India and China. This conflict left far-reaching repercussions for the sub-continent.

India was following a non-alignment policy before this war. This war raised a great question related to India’s military weakness and non-alignment policy. Now at this stage India had to seek foreign support to build muscles and defense. It had to rely either on Communist or Capitalist bloc. Hence, India joined Capitalist bloc and Imperialist countries. Chinese invasion forced India into an arms buildup. This war gave Americans an opportunity to materialize India as a counter-weight to China.

Pakistan-China Friendship:

Pakistan in 1962’s War fully supported China for its claim. India’s sudden weakness became Pakistan’s new strength. First and the foremost issue between Pakistan and India was Kashmir dispute at that time. India faced considerable pressure at the international level to solve out the issue as soon as possible.

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto the then foreign minister demanded a suitable solution to this problem. India was quite near to solve Kashmir dispute but the lack of commitment of the International community and Bhutto’s short- sightedness dashed this dream to the ground.

China started to look around for any ally, which could stand by it in hard times, morally if not materially. In this case, Pakistan was an obvious choice for China to make a long lasting relation. The old notion of “Hindi Cheeni Bhai Bhai” was replaced and rephrased with “Pak Cheen Dosti”.

Sino-Indian war left some problems for Pakistan on one hand and China’s friendship on the other to which India responded with antagonism. India started to believe that China would support Pakistan against India in future. This attitude brought certain changes in foreign policy of Pakistan and Pakistan started to make India oriented foreign policy. After Sino-Indian War China got importance in sub-continent and international arena.

June 2020:Sino-Indian Brawl over Galwan Valley, Ladakh after four decades:

The two sides clash was the first to lead to fatalities in at least 45 years over Galwan Valley in Ladakh. The fight in the Galwan Valley left at least 20 Indian soldiers dead and some Indian soldiers went missing. China released ten soldiers later. China did not acknowledge any casualties among its forces, while at least 76 Indian soldiers were injured. Both sides accused the other of an incursion.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said India had crossed the border twice, "provoking and attacking Chinese personnel, resulting in serious physical confrontation between border forces on the two sides". China claimed "sovereignty over the Galwan Valley region" - a claim rebutted by India as "exaggerated and untenable".

An Indian government statement said Chinese forces tried to erect a structure on the Indian side of the de facto border, the Line of Actual Control (LAC).The statement accused the Chinese of a "premeditated and planned action that was directly responsible for the resulting violence and casualties" and urged China to "take corrective steps".

Meanwhile, a Chinese statement quoted Mr Wang as saying: "China again expresses strong protest to India and demands the Indian side launches a thorough investigation and stop all provocative actions to ensure the same things do not happen again."

 Conflict without guns?

The Galwan river valley in Ladakh, with its harsh climate and high-altitude terrain, is close to Aksai Chin, a disputed area claimed by India but controlled by China. This is not the first time the two nuclear-armed neighbors have fought without conventional firearms on the border. India and China have a history of face-offs and overlapping territorial claims along the more than 3,440km (2,100 mile), poorly drawn LAC separating the two sides.

The last firing on the border happened in 1975 when four Indian soldiers were killed in a remote pass in the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. The clash was variously an ambush and an accident. But no bullets have been fired since.

In 1996 bilateral agreement was made that says "neither side shall open fire, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometres of the Line of Actual Control".

But there have been other tense confrontations along the border in May and June,2020. In May Indian and Chinese soldiers exchanged physical blows on the border at Pangong Lake Ladakh, and in the north-eastern Indian state of Sikkim hundreds of miles to the east.

India has accused China of sending thousands of troops into Ladakh's Galwan Valley and says China occupies 38,000 sq km (14,700 sq miles) of its territory. Several rounds of talks in the last three decades have failed to resolve the boundary disputes.

 2020:Sino-Indian Conflict :Shrewd Modi's Trap:

The swift  victory of China over India ,the emergence of Chinese in the region is being portrayed on social and electronic media but, with this conflict Modi has laid a trap for emergence of India as a new global power.

Comprising almost one-third of the world’s population, both China and India are competing for global respect with an immense amount of investment in education , developing emerging markets, and global branding of their nations. Both have finally developed a stable middle class — the backbone of the global financial system that primarily acts as a catalyst for the global economy.

What was Modi thinking when he decided to take on China?

Trade between the two is estimated to be around $84 billion. Both countries, more so than the West, have a monopoly over commodity markets (ranging from oil and gas to lentils and canola oil) across the globe.

To avoid bidding in search of new assets, the National Oil Company of India has forged an informal consultation alliance with the Chinese Petroleum Company. Both countries have difficulty in the UN when it comes to their unimpressive record on human rights.

The Indian prime minister has based his limited but high-profile conflict strategy on the assumption that under current circumstances, China will not escalate any conflict in the region due to the following:

·    It would raise uncertainty in the already in turmoil capital markets of mainland China, which may impact the much needed liquidity that the regime requires to come out of this economic crisis.

·    The Chinese regime currently faces perhaps its biggest challenges in the last 50 years, which include : accusations put forward by several countries, including the US, Australia and France of a Covid-19 cover-up, the future of Hong Kong protests and its amalgamation in mainland China, and  the future of Chinese firms after the international blockade of Huawei.

·    The downfall of Huawei, while orchestrated by the US, is an absolute delight for the European, South Korean and Japanese tech sectors, as it brings a competitive balance to the global tech market.

With these limitations to a Chinese response, Modi has finally set the stage to preserve his legacy as the man who will bring about India’s emergence as an international giant.

The current Indian regime has various audiences to this conflict. Firstly, there’s Vietnam and Cambodia, which are some of the fastest-growing economies in the world and in need of a reliable defense partner against China, making India a likely future ally.

 The recent rift between the US and South Korea over the purchase of an $8bn defense system, coupled with the constant maneuvering of US/North Korea relationship, South Korea, along with Japan, is looking for a fellow Asian power to confront China.

Modi wants to deliver to his nation a permanent member, non-veto seat in the UN Security Council, something which his arch rival Pandit Nehru could only dream of, which would be a delight for its newfound allies, including Israel. The trap has been set by the Indian prime minister, and it is now time to observe the Chinese response, which is generally long term and routed through its allies